Recently my winter fly fishing strategy has been simple: tie up a bunch of Crazy Charlies and chase bonefish somewhere close to the equator. Once back in Oregon, I'd make a few half-hearted attempts at winter steelheading, but mostly I'd just think about the tropics until Oregon got warmer and drier.

For three years that strategy got me from December to March.

But this fall my 401K plan became a 201K plan, and I was too scared to spend any money on a bonefish trip. It was time to get serious about winter fishing close to home.

The Plan

In November, I developed "The Plan," a month-by-month strategy to get me to spring:

1. December. Steelhead in the Deschutes, if time and snow-covered roads allow me to get there. "Filler fishing" in the Willamette (more about this later.)
2. January. Hang tough until mid-month. Then, after a heavy rain, hit Eagle Creek. As water continues to drop, chase steelhead on the Sandy. A couple more days of dropping water, and it's steelhead in the Clackamas. If the water is above 42 degrees (or so), swing flies in swinging runs, nymph in slots and rocky areas. If the water is cold, forget swinging and just nymph. If the water is very high and all rivers are unfishable, do some of that mysterious "filler" fishing. If the weather is truly awful, stay home.
3. February. This is a repeat of January, but the fishing emphasis is on the first half of the month. Add trout fishing during blue-winged olive hatches on the Deschutes, especially in the last half of the month; this is dependent on road conditions.
4. March. Everything is prime, both for steelhead and for trout. Go after trout during March brown hatches on the mid-Willamette and McKenzie. Steelhead on the coast, Clackamas, Sandy, North Umpqua--anywhere I can get to. Make sure the decks are cleared and I've got the time to fish, because this is a good as it gets.
5. April. The first half of the month is a repeat of March. By mid-April, I've made it to spring and it's time to go to the lakes.

It's all very logical. The timing of hatchery-based steelhead runs has shifted considerably the last few years because ODFW is using wild fish for hatchery broodstock; on many streams, fish come in later than they used to. After a heavy rain, small tributaries clear first, then the mid-gradient streams, and last of all the big low-gradient rivers. And winter steelhead are less likely to chase a fly when the water temperature is low, hence the cold-weather nymphing.

Now, about that mysterious "filler" fishing. When the rivers are all running olive-drab or just plain khaki, you can't fish for steelhead with a fly. So my strategy is to chase carp in the Willamette with bait. I know, I know. Bait. But what else are you going to do besides sit by the fire?

The Reality

The only problem with my carefully constructed strategy is that it got blown to smithereens after one week. I pursued Deschutes steelhead the first week of December, as per plan. But then that horrible arctic cold came in. Cold was followed by snow, compounded by the holiday season, followed by wind storms, followed by cleaning up all the yard debris created by the wind and snow. I hauled away the equivalent of two dump trucks worth of broken limbs; that activity alone cost me three days of fishing.

Since the first of the year, I've had only two steelhead outings, both of which were really scouting trips. Even the carp deserted me. I was successful through November, but after that I haven't been able to find them. Further, the weather pattern has not been the usual big rainstorm followed by dropping rivers. Instead, it's been cold, windy, and relatively dry.

I'm hoping for some change in the weather this week. When/if it comes, I'm headed out for some steelhead and maybe some carp. If I don't find any . . . . well, at least I'll be a few days closer to spring.